Markets have had a strong run over the past few years, but when valuations start stretching and headlines get louder, the real question becomes simple:
Are you prepared if the market finally pulls back?
That’s exactly what I discussed with my good friend Jeremy Hutchings when I joined him again on the Profitable Farmer Podcast – what’s really happening beneath the surface of today’s markets as we move deeper into 2026, and what farming families can do to prepare before the next reset arrives.
Because I know for a lot of farmers and tradies right now, it’s not just “market volatility” on a screen. It’s the real-life pressure that comes with tight seasons, shifting commodity prices, input costs that never seem to settle, and that constant feeling of needing to make the right decision at the right time, even when the world feels loud and uncertain.
And when the media is hyping up global tension, tariffs, politics, and market swings, it can leave people thinking:
“Is investing just another gamble I can’t afford to get wrong?”
What I want people to hear is this: The market only feels like gambling when you don’t have a systemised process. When you do, it becomes preparation, not panic.
When Markets Get Loud, Data Gets Useful
A big part of our conversation is pulling people away from the noise and back to what actually matters.
The media will always find a story.
But I prefer to follow the data behind the scenes, because the data tells you what’s real.
Here’s what we unpacked:
- The market has continued to rise, but a lot of that has been driven by a small group of tech and AI
- Outside of those top companies, many areas of the market have been flat or under pressure
- Valuations across the board are getting expensive, even in places farmers recognise, like John Deere
So on the surface, it can look like everything is healthy.
But underneath, it’s more fragile than people realise.
And when markets get fragile, you don’t need to predict the exact day it turns.
You just need to be ready before it does.
Who This Episode Is For
This episode will hit home if you’re someone who wants to make smarter financial decisions as we go deeper in the overheated stock market of 2026.
This episode is especially valuable for:
- Farmers managing seasonal income and wanting an off-farm plan that doesn’t rely on perfect seasons
- Business owners and tradies who feel like all the pressure sits on them to keep cash flow moving
- Professionals and pre-retirees who want steadier, more confident decisions with super and investments
- Anyone with money in managed funds who isn’t sure how exposed they really are right now to market risk
If you’ve ever felt like the market is something you should do, but you don’t want to “wing it”, this one is for you.
“Cash Is King” in 2026 and Here’s Why
One of the biggest points I made in the episode is simple:
The next big year doesn’t come from chasing what’s hot. It comes from being cashed up when prices finally fall.
We’ve had multiple strong years in a row:
- 2023: strong returns
- 2024: strong returns
- 2025: another strong year
Markets don’t move in straight lines forever.
So between now and the end of 2026, I’m expecting a pullback. I don’t pretend to know exactly when, but I can see the valuations, and I can see how stretched parts of the market have become.
That’s why I’m doing what disciplined investors do:
I’m building a ‘war chest’ – in other words, I’m setting money aside so that when a good opportunity comes up, I already have the cash ready to use.
I shared that my own cash position is currently around 41–42%, and the reason isn’t fear. It’s strategy.
Because when a real pullback comes, the worst feeling in the world is watching opportunity arrive and realising you’re stuck on the sidelines with no cash to act.
Why a System Beats FOMO Every Time
Another point Jeremy and I spoke about in the episode is how much easier investing becomes once you have a clear process.
The share market often feels risky because people are making decisions based on headlines, tips, or emotions. Without a framework, every piece of news feels urgent and every opportunity feels like something you might miss.
In our conversation, I explained that a systemised approach changes that completely. Instead of reacting to the noise, you work through the same criteria every time – looking at the numbers, the valuation, and whether the opportunity actually makes financial sense.
I said in the episode that when you’ve got a systemised process, you can hear a stock tip from a friend and within 30 seconds you can look at the numbers and know:
- Yes, it’s worth investigating, or
- No, the numbers don’t stack up
And that kind of discipline is exactly what helps investors stay calm during uncertain markets — something we explore throughout the episode.
Why This Episode Is a Must-Listen in 2026
If the start of 2026 has you feeling a bit on edge, you’re not imagining it.
When markets run high for years, people quietly get complacent. Portfolios drift. Risk builds without anyone meaning to. And then when a pullback hits, it doesn’t just take money, it takes confidence. People freeze, react late, or make decisions they regret for years.
This episode is designed to stop that from happening.
Because for farmers, business owners, and pre-retirees, the cost of getting this wrong is bigger than a red day on a chart. It can mean:
- Locking money away at the wrong time
- Getting caught overexposed inside super or managed funds
- Feeling like you have no control when volatility hits
- Missing the best buying window because there’s no cash ready
Jeremy and I break down what’s actually driving markets underneath the headlines, why parts of the market are looking overheated, and what disciplined investors do before everyone else panics.
You’ll walk away knowing how to:
- Spot when “good news” is already priced in and valuations are stretched
- Build a proper cash buffer so you’re not a spectator in the next dip
- Ask better questions of your advisor or fund so you know where you stand
- Use a rules-based process that removes FOMO and replaces it with calm
This is not a fear episode. It’s a readiness episode. Because if a pullback does land in 2026, the people who come out stronger won’t be the ones who guessed right.
They’ll be the ones who were prepared, cashed up, and steady enough to act when others couldn’t.
To your success,
Terry
Topics Discussed in This Episode…
- How to avoid “investing by headlines” and use data to stay calm in volatile markets
- What an “overheated” market looks like and why valuation matters, even for quality companies
- Why holding more cash can reduce risk and increase opportunity when prices reset
- What’s really propping up markets right now, and why tech/AI is masking weakness elsewhere
- What to ask your advisor or super fund so you know whether you are prepared
- Why Australia’s market behaves differently and why many Aussie companies are still largely domestic
- Key catalysts that can trigger a sharper pullback including rates, politics, and global tensions
- How a systemised process removes FOMO so you can pass on opportunities without regret
Quotes
- “The share market might feel scary,volatile and risky, but when you know what to look for… you’re not gambling. You’re following a system.” – Terry Tran
- “Cash is king. When the market does take the tumble, you don’t want to be caught out like a deer in headlights. You want to make sure that you’re prepared.” – Terry Tran
- “We don’t want to be passengers in this. We want to be ready and poised to make the most of the opportunity.” – Jeremy Hutchings
- “It’s important that if you manage your own portfolio and…your own superfund…You’ve got full control to make sure that…you’re not getting too greedy and ensuring that you’re selling down to ensure that you’ve got this large amount of cash… And you can take advantage of that and not be a spectator on the sidelines. – Terry Tran
Relevant Links
Companies / Stocks that were mentioned:
- Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A / BRK.B)
- Apple Inc. (AAPL)
- Meta Platforms Inc. (META)
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL / GOOG)
- Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)
- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)
- ASML Holding N.V. (ASML)
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM / TSMC)
- Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
- Pfizer Inc. (PFE)
- Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO)
- Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK)
- Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU)
- Deere & Company (DE)
- BHP Group Ltd (BHP)
- Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG.AX)
- Cochlear Ltd (COH.AX)
- CSL Limited (CSL.AX)
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX)
- National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB.AX)
- Telstra Group Ltd (TLS.AX)
For Farmers and Everyday Investors
- Farm Owners Academy (Jeremy’s Business Coaching for Farmers)
- 🎙️FOA Episode 165 – How Farmers and Investors Can Navigate Economic Uncertainty
- 📘The Freedom Trader Stock Investing Checklist – Use the exact checklist Terry relies on before buying a stock
- 🎓The Freedom Trader Free Masterclass – Discover how you can invest more safely, without the guesswork.
