It’s been a few days and Brexit is still all the talk of town. You just gotta look at the continuing Brexit media headlines.
Where do I think the market is going and how will the UK or European economies do from here?
I have no idea if I am to be totally honest. The UK may or may not benefit from the exit depending on how well they negotiate with the other 27 countries. Problem is, if they do well out of it, it could then lead to other countries doing the same. There are just too many moving parts to be precise.
One can only work off probabilities and the likelihood of a global economic disaster from a Brexit alone is currently low as it stands.
But one thing I do know is that if the UK proceeds to go ahead and formally notify the European Union of leaving, they do have a tonne of work ahead of them, renegotiating economic trade, immigration policies etc. going forward with 27 other nations which all will invariably try to gain an upper hand towards their own economic and more importantly political interests.
Do date as I write, Brexit is still up in the air, as Britain has yet to formally begin EU exit proceedings and there is rumour that Scotland may try to veto Brexit from happening, since the majority of the Scottish voted to stay and feel they have been forced into the mess.
As for the market, you can just look at the VIX volatility index or ‘Fear index’ to see that the market has clearly overshot the mark in the short term and bargains are to be had.
In the past week since Brexit, the VIX has not once spiked above the 30 reading, which is a great sign that nothing bad is around the corner. When the GFC rolled around in 2009, the VIX spiked above 90 on multiple occasions.
So far, the market seems to have priced in the worse of a UK exit.
The only ‘Black Swan’ or left field event I am concerned about and cannot foresee is if any other nation will follow suit and hold their own referendum to vote out of the EU also, which will then lead to a potential domino effect and eventual EU break-up which nobody wants. This is when the VIX will definitely spike.
For now, it does look like the global stock markets have stabilised and further big drops are unlikely. The British pound of course is a different matter.
Personally, l continue picking up bargains, especially among the big end of town which have nothing to do with the UK and were indiscriminately sold down.
Remember; be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.
Try to not let the media influence you otherwise when there is value around.
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